On October 5, 2023, sugar prices rose significantly as October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) increased by 1.05% to $18.29 per pound, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) climbed 1.54% to $525.70 per metric ton. This surge follows a 3% rise in crude oil prices, reaching a 3.25-month high, influencing sugar mills to potentially shift more cane production towards ethanol, thereby reducing sugar supply.
Additionally, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp forecasts a 17% decrease in Thailand’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season, down to 10 million metric tons (MMT), which is significant given Thailand’s position as the world’s second-largest sugar exporter. Conversely, India’s government has reduced the sugar stock-holding limit, aiming to increase domestic availability and potentially decreasing the need for sugar imports.
Recent reports indicate a projected global sugar deficit of 200,000 metric tons for 2026/27, contrasting an earlier surplus estimate for 2025/26. The USDA and various analysts highlight that global sugar production may decline by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching 184.854 MMT in 2026/27, amidst ongoing weather concerns and import adjustments in leading producing countries.
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