On February 13, sugar prices were influenced by a +0.43% increase in New York world sugar (SBK26) and a +0.41% rise in London white sugar (SWK26), largely due to a surge in WTI crude oil prices which climbed over +6% to reach an 8.5-month high. This spike in oil prices may cause sugar producers to shift focus from sugar production to ethanol, potentially tightening sugar supplies.
Despite these gains, analysts project a continuing global sugar surplus, estimating surpluses of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year and 8.3 MMT for the 2025/26 crop year. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has scaled back its forecast for the 2025-26 surplus to +1.22 MMT, attributed to increased production from countries like India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Brazil’s sugar output is anticipated to decline by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, following a reported 36% year-over-year decrease for the last half of January.
Furthermore, India’s sugar output is set to rise by 12% year-over-year, totaling 29.3 MMT for 2025/26, benefiting from a new approval for an additional 500,000 MT in exports. This follows earlier quotas instituted due to limited domestic supplies after adverse weather conditions.
