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On November 10, 2023, December WTI crude oil closed up 2.39%, or +$1.40, while December RBOB gasoline increased by 2.65%, or +$0.0519. The rise in prices comes amid ongoing concerns about global oil supplies following Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil export port in Novorossiysk, which handled approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent months.
Additionally, a recent Iranian seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman has raised geopolitical risks in the Middle East, further pushing crude prices higher. Ukrainian attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past three months, leading to a decrease in total seaborne fuel shipments from Russia to 3.45 million bpd as of November 9, down by 130,000 bpd from the previous week.
OPEC’s latest report indicates a shift from a projected 400,000 bpd deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus for Q3 2023, coinciding with an increase in US crude production to a record high of 13.862 million bpd. Furthermore, the number of active US oil rigs rose by 3 to 417, slightly above the four-year low of 410 rigs.
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