On Thursday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed up 0.57 cents (+3.85%) at 15.4 cents per pound, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) increased by 13.80 USD (+3.16%) to 448.80 USD per metric ton. Sugar prices hit five-month highs due to rising gasoline prices, which soared to a 3.5-year high, encouraging sugar mills to boost ethanol production at the expense of sugar.
Support for sugar prices is also derived from supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting around 6% of global sugar trade. Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association reported a 10.5% year-over-year increase in India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 period, totaling 26.2 MMT.
The USDA forecasts global sugar production will rise by 4.6% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, while human sugar consumption is projected to reach a record 177.921 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production is expected to rise by 2.3% year-over-year to a record 44.7 MMT, aided by favorable weather conditions.
