**Sugar Prices Rise Amid Crop Concerns**
On July 4, sugar prices increased with July NY world sugar #11 up by 0.09 cents (+0.65%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 up by 2.70 cents (+0.60%). The rise is attributed to reports from India’s Meteorological Department indicating that cumulative monsoon rainfall is 32% below normal as of June 15, heightening concerns over sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, which has a monsoon season running from June to September.
Amidst a broader market context, the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern is expected to further impact global sugar production, potentially limiting rainfall in key regions such as India, Brazil, and Thailand. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has assigned a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year. Meanwhile, sugar trader Czarnikow revised its 2026/27 sugar balance forecast from a surplus of 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) to a deficit of 100,000 MT, coinciding with Brazil’s producers shifting focus toward ethanol production due to falling crude oil prices.
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