May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) rose by 0.04 cents (+0.29%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) climbed 3.80 cents (+0.90%) as of today. Sugar prices are experiencing upward momentum due to a two-week high in London sugar, spurred by crude oil prices increasing by over 1%, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, potentially reducing sugar supply.
Brazil’s sugar production forecast for 2026/27 is projected at 42.5 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 3% year-over-year, attributed to a higher focus on ethanol. Additionally, Covrig Analytics revised the global sugar surplus estimate for the same period to 800,000 metric tons, down from 1.4 million metric tons. Corns of disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure, affecting 6% of global sugar trade, further supports the price increase.
India’s sugar production from October 1 to April 15 saw a 7.7% yearly increase to 27.48 MMT. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association projected a 12% year-over-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26, set to reach 29.3 MMT. The USDA forecasted global sugar production for 2025/26 to rise by 4.6% annually to a record 189.318 MMT, with Brazil and India leading the charge in higher output.
