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On March 29, 2023, sugar prices rose significantly, with March NY world sugar #11 increasing by 1.94% to +0.32 and December London ICE white sugar #5 also up by 1.51% to +6.90. This surge follows a report from Unica indicating a decline in the sugar content of Brazil’s Center-South sugarcane crush, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton year-on-year, signaling lower sugar production in Brazil.
Brazil’s sugar output for the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-over-year to 3.622 million tons, yet cumulative production for the 2025-26 season decreased slightly by 0.1% to 30.388 million tons. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is forecasted to rise by 19% year-over-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, influenced by a strong monsoon that has delivered 937.2 mm of rain, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years.
The International Sugar Organization predicts a 2025-26 global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons, a slight improvement from the -4.88 million ton shortfall of the previous season. Concurrently, the USDA expects global sugar production to reach 189.318 million tons, which would be a 4.7% year-over-year increase.
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