On December 16, 2023, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by 1.03%, reaching an increase of +0.15 to settle at +1.03%. Concurrently, March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) also saw an uptick of +0.60%, rising by +2.50. The rally in sugar prices was largely attributed to a strong performance of the Brazilian real, which reached a three-week high against the dollar, dampening export sales from Brazilian producers.
India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise significantly, with the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) estimating a 25% year-over-year increase to 11.90 million metric tons (MMT) between October and December 2025. Overall, ISMA expects India’s sugar output to increase by 18.8% to 31 MMT. In contrast, forecasts from Brazil indicate a decline in sugar production, with expected drops from 43.5 MMT in 2025-26 to 41.8 MMT in 2026-27.
Overall, the International Sugar Organization predicts a global sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, attributed to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. The USDA has also forecast a 4.6% rise in global sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT for the same timeframe, driven partly by strong yields from Brazil and favorable conditions in India.
