On Thursday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) closed up by +0.18 (+1.09%) to reach 1.5-month highs, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) increased by +5.50 (+1.15%). The surge in sugar prices is attributed to an expected boost in US sugar consumption, as President Trump announced Coca-Cola’s decision to switch to cane sugar from high-fructose corn syrup, potentially increasing US sugar demand by 4.4% to 11.5 MMT.
Brazil’s sugar production has also declined, with Unica reporting a 14.3% year-on-year drop in cumulative output to 12.249 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Furthermore, India is projected to increase its sugar production for 2025/26 by 19% to 35 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25. Meanwhile, Thailand’s production is expected to rise 14% to 10.00 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices globally.
The International Sugar Organization has raised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to -5.47 MMT, indicating tightening market conditions after a surplus in the previous season. USDA projections also estimate global sugar production for 2025/26 will reach a record 189.318 MMT, with ending stocks anticipated to grow by 7.5% year-on-year.
