March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed at $14.45, up 1.05%, marking a 2.5-week high, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) rose by 0.39% to $413.10 on Monday. Strong performance was largely driven by a surge in the Brazilian real, which reached a 1.75-year high against the dollar, dampening export incentives for Brazilian sugar producers.
Significant market changes were also influenced by a ruling from the US Supreme Court that may allow increased sugar imports from Brazil, potentially affecting global supplies. As of February 17, speculative funds boosted their short positions in NY sugar futures to a record high of 265,324 contracts. Concurrently, Brazil’s sugar production for the second half of January fell by 36% year-on-year, totaling just 5,000 MT.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million MT for the 2026/27 crop year, amidst increasing production projections in India, Thailand, and Brazil. The USDA anticipates Brazil’s production in 2025/26 will rise to 44.7 million MT, while India’s output is expected to increase substantially by 25% to 35.25 million MT, fueled by favorable monsoon conditions.
