Sugar prices are on the rise, with May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) up 0.06 (+0.43%) and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) up 6.60 (+1.62%) as of today. This surge follows an increase in WTI crude prices, hitting an 8.25-month high, which may incentivize sugar producers to allocate more sugarcane for ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies.
On February 12, sugar prices dropped to 5.25-year lows due to concerns over a global sugar surplus, which is projected to be 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year. Notable forecasts indicate India’s sugar production is set to increase by 12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT in 2025/26, contributing to higher export availability. Conversely, Brazil’s sugar production in the second half of January fell by 36% year-on-year to 5,000 MT, but cumulative output remains steady at 40.24 MMT, a 0.9% year-on-year increase through January.
