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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) increased by +0.10 (+0.61%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) rose by +0.50 (+0.11%). The increase follows the report from Unica that Brazil’s Center-South sugarcane crush saw a sugar content decline from 160.07 kg/ton last year to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September, indicating reduced sugar production. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production for the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT), despite cumulative output for the 2025-26 season dropping -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MT.
Market factors include Pakistan’s recent orders for 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery, signaling stronger global demand. However, projections indicate a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MT for the upcoming 2025/26 season, significantly reversing a deficit of -4.7 MT in 2024/25. Furthermore, India’s projected sugar output for the 2025/26 season is set to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MT, raising concerns over potential price suppression in the global market.
Simultaneously, the Thai Sugar Miller Corp anticipates a +5% increase in Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop to 10.5 MT, which could further counterbalance the reported deficits in supply. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the sixth consecutive year, predicting a deficit of -231,000 MT for 2025/26, improving from a -4.88 MT shortfall in 2024/25.
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