On Friday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed at $15.10, up +0.25 (+1.68%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed at $427.70, up +5.20 (+1.23%). This rally was spurred by a stronger Brazilian real, which limits export sales from Brazil.
India’s sugar production is forecasted to increase significantly, with the India Sugar Mill Association reporting a 43% year-on-year increase to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) from October to November. Additionally, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT. The International Sugar Organization also projects a surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26 due to elevated production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
Positive conditions for increased sugar output in India have been bolstered by strong monsoons, leading to expectations of higher exports. The USDA anticipates global sugar production will rise by 4.7% year-on-year to a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26.
