Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York world sugar #11 for July down 0.04 cents (0.24%), reaching its lowest point in nearly 4 years, while August London ICE white sugar #5 is up 0.50 cents (0.11%). The decline in New York sugar prices is attributed to expectations of increased production in India, with projections indicating a 19% year-over-year rise to 35 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, aided by expanded cane acreage.
Globally, the USDA anticipates a 4.7% increase in sugar production for 2025/26, reaching a record 189.318 MMT, contributing to a global surplus of 41.188 MMT. In contrast, sugar production in Brazil is projected to record declines, with recent reports indicating a 22.7% year-on-year drop in production to 3.989 MMT as of mid-May. Meanwhile, favorable monsoon forecasts for India could lead to an even larger sugar crop, exerting further downward pressure on prices.
