On Thursday, July Nymex natural gas prices closed up by $0.122 (+3.79%), reaching a 2.5-week high amid forecasts of rising temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast from June 30 to July 4, which could increase demand from electricity providers for air conditioning. Despite the price increase, natural gas inventories rose by 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) last week, surpassing expectations of 69 bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
U.S. lower-48 dry gas production was reported at 112.0 bcf/day (+3.4% year-on-year), while gas demand was recorded at 72.9 bcf/day (-10.5% year-on-year). Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) net flows to export terminals increased to 19.1 bcf/day (+0.8% week-on-week). The EIA has revised the 2026 forecast for U.S. dry natural gas production to 111.0 bcf/day, up from a previous estimate of 110.6 bcf/day.
Global supply concerns have surfaced, particularly following reported damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant, affecting 17% of its LNG export capacity. Current inventories in Europe are at 47% full, compared to a five-year average of 62%. Baker Hughes noted an increase in active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs, bringing the total to 122, still below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.
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