On July 15, 2023, coffee prices settled mixed with July arabica coffee (KCN26) closing down by $1.05 (-0.38%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) rising by $57 (+1.68%). The increase in robusta prices is attributed to dry weather in Vietnam, which threatens the robusta coffee crop.
Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern impacting Brazil’s coffee crops next year have also led to price support. The NOAA predicts an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, potentially delaying essential rain for coffee tree flowering in September and October.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags in April, while Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 15.8% to 810,000 MT for January-April. ICE robusta inventories have seen fluctuations, recently falling to a two-year low of 3,631 lots before recovering to 3,968 lots.
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