As of Wednesday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed at +0.09 (+0.59%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) finished at +3.30 (+0.76%). This increase is influenced by a forecast from Safras & Mercado suggesting a 3.91% decrease in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27, projecting it to reach 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) down from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, along with an expected 11% drop in exports to 30 MMT.
Recent bearish signals include India raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase year-on-year, alongside recommended additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic surplus. Additionally, the USDA forecasts global sugar production for 2025/26 to rise by 4.6% to 189.318 MMT, with consumption increasing by 1.4% to 177.921 MMT.
Further impacting prices, the International Sugar Organization indicates a predicted sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven largely by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
