Soybean Market Experiences Declines Amid Mixed Export Data
At midday on Monday, the soybean market is showing signs of weakness, with prices dropping between 7 to 11 cents. Specifically, there were 142 deliveries of March soybeans overnight, all executed by a JP Morgan customer and all stopped by the Bunge House account. The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price reflects a decrease of 10 cents, now at $9.49 1/2. In related futures, Soymeal is down $1.20 per ton, while Soy Oil futures are lower by 131 points. Additionally, there were 34 more deliveries for March bean meal overnight, leading to a total of 165 delivery notices for March bean oil.
This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 195,000 metric tons of soybeans to unspecified destinations for the 2024/25 marketing year.
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The Weekly Export Inspections report indicated that a total of 844,218 metric tons (31.02 million bushels) of soybeans were shipped during the week ending March 6. This figure shows a 20.6% increase over the previous week and a 7.6% rise compared to the same week last year. China was the largest destination, receiving 276,437 metric tons, followed by Indonesia with 133,079 metric tons and Germany at 129,269 metric tons. Overall, marketing year exports stand at 38.44 million metric tons (1.412 billion bushels), which is still 9.6% higher than at this time last year.
The USDA’s upcoming WASDE report, scheduled for release on Tuesday, is generating attention among traders who do not anticipate significant changes to the U.S. soybean carryout number, which is currently expected at 379 million bushels. The average market estimate for Argentine soybean production has been adjusted to 48.9 million metric tons, a slight decrease from the 49 million metric tons estimated in February. In contrast, Brazil is projected to see a modest increase of 0.5 million metric tons, bringing its expected output to 169.5 million metric tons.
Recent Commitment of Traders data revealed that speculators have shifted back to a net short position, totaling 43,696 contracts to reach a net short of 35,487 contracts.
The Brazilian soybean crop is currently estimated to be 61% harvested, ahead of last year’s pace of 55% for the same week.
Mar 25 Soybeans are priced at $10.03, down 7 1/4 cents.
Nearby Cash is trading at $9.49 1/2, down 10 cents.
May 25 Soybeans stand at $10.14 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents.
Nov 25 Soybeans are priced at $10.17 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents.
New Crop Cash is at $9.53 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities discussed in this article. All information and data herein is for informational purposes only. For further details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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