Soybean Futures Decline Amid Wet Outlook and Market Pressure
Current Trading Conditions
Soybean contracts rose 2 to 5 cents early Tuesday but closed 7 to 10 cents lower due to market pressures from a wetter forecast and weakening product values. Preliminary open interest increased by 4,106 contracts. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price fell 7.5 cents to $9.88 3/4. Soymeal futures recorded losses between 80 cents and $2.30 per ton, while Soy Oil decreased 13 to 68 points.
Crop Progress Report
The USDA’s Crop Progress data indicates that the U.S. soybean crop is 84% planted, surpassing the normal pace by 4 percentage points, with 63% emerged, ahead of the 5-year average of 57%. Initial ratings show 67% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, aligning with trade expectations. This corresponds to a Brugler500 index score of 370, down from 379 last year.
Market Analysis
The NASS Fats & Oils report, released after Monday’s close, revealed 202.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April, exceeding estimates. This figure represents a 2.11% decline from March but a 13.98% increase from April 2024. Total soybean oil stocks fell 5% from last month to 1.975 billion lbs, still 14.5% below April 2024 levels.
Export Inspections Data
Export inspections showed a rise in soybean shipments to 268,343 metric tons (9.86 million bushels) for the week ending May 29, marking a 34.2% increase from the previous week but a 25.7% decline from the same week last year. China remained the top destination with 64,998 metric tons, followed by 57,487 metric tons to Bangladesh and 34,927 metric tons to Mexico. Year-to-date exports total 44.61 million metric tons (1.639 billion bushels), up 10.7% from last year.
Market Closing Prices
For July 25, soybeans closed at $10.33 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents, but are currently up 5 cents. Nearby cash prices were $9.88 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.
For August 25, soybeans closed at $10.27 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents, with a slight current rise of 4 cents.
For November 25, soybeans closed at $10.17, down 9 3/4 cents, currently up 2 3/4 cents. New crop cash prices were $9.56 1/2, down 7 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder had no positions in any of the mentioned securities. All information is for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
