Soybean Prices Rise Ahead of Key US-China Meeting
Soybean bulls are gaining momentum as the weekend meeting between the US and China approaches, with contracts rising 5 to 8 cents. However, July contracts fell back 6 ¼ cents over the week, while November contracts remained unchanged. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price increased by 6 3/4 cents, landing at $10.00 1/4. In soymeal futures, some deferred contracts rose by 60 cents, while near-term options saw declines of up to 60 cents, with July down $2.80 this week. Soy Oil futures closed higher, up 12 to 29 points, despite a weekly loss of 86 points in July contracts.
Export Activity and Market Positioning
The USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/26 marketing year.
According to CFTC data, managed money has reduced net long positions in soybean futures and options by 16,332 contracts, bringing their total to 21,870 contracts as of Tuesday. In contrast, managed money registered a record net short position of 103,457 contracts in soybean meal futures and options.
USDA Sales Data and Forecasts
USDA Export Sales data now indicates that total soybean shipments, including those not yet shipped, stand at 47.72 million metric tons (MMT). This figure represents a 13% year-over-year increase, accounting for 96% of USDA’s current forecast, compared to the average sales pace of 97%.
The USDA’s May WASDE report is slated for release on Monday. Predictions indicate that Brazilian production will rise by 0.17 MMT to 169.17 MMT, while Argentina’s output is expected to be updated to 49.25 MMT, an increase from the 49 MMT forecast in April. Traders anticipate that global ending stocks for the 2024/25 soybean crop will remain steady at 122.5 MMT, with new crop estimates at 126.02 MMT.
Chinese Import Data
In April, Chinese soybean imports reached a decade-low figure of 6.08 MMT but showed an increase from 3.5 MMT in March.
Current Soybean Prices
May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44, up 7 1/4 cents.
Nearby Cash was priced at $10.00 1/4, an increase of 6 3/4 cents.
Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.51 3/4, also up 6 3/4 cents.
Nov 25 Soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents.
New Crop Cash was quoted at $9.67 1/4, reflecting a gain of 5 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions, either directly or indirectly, in the securities mentioned in this article. All information provided is solely for informational purposes. For further details, please review the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Nasdaq, Inc.
