Soybean Market Shows Initial Signs of Recovery Despite Earlier Losses
Markets React to Export Sales and Weather Conditions
Soybeans opened trading on Friday with a slight upward trend, with contracts increasing by 3 to 4 cents in nearby markets. Despite these gains, there was little positive reaction to the recent export data or the favorable Export Sales report released Thursday morning. Futures concluded the previous day with losses ranging from 7 ½ to 14 cents. Preliminary open interest revealed net new selling, which rose by 4,589 contracts. According to CmdtyView, the national front month Cash Bean price decreased by 12 1/4 cents, settling at $9.27. Ongoing product pressure continues to weigh on the market, with Soymeal futures falling by $1.40 to $1.90 per ton and Soy Oil futures down by an additional 85 to 110 points.
The weather outlook for Brazil indicates continued rainfall in the coming week, although some areas may receive lighter-than-average precipitation for this time of year.
The weekly Export Sales report from Thursday morning showed soybean sales reaching 1.861 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2024/25 crop year. This figure surpassed the trade estimate range of 1 to 1.6 MMT for the week ending November 14. Sales increased by 19.6% from the previous week and were more than double what was recorded during the same week last year. China remained the top buyer with 1.197 MMT, followed by Mexican importers at 169,000 MT and the Netherlands, which purchased 143,400 MT.
Sales for Soymeal amounted to 275,629 MT, landing at the lower end of the estimated range of 210,000 to 490,000 MT and down 9.1% compared to last week. Soybean oil bookings totaled 21,947 MT, fitting within the estimates of 5,000 to 35,000 MT.
The International Grains Council revised its forecast for global production downward by 2 MMT in its latest update, bringing the total to 419 MMT. Meanwhile, projected stocks decreased by 4 MMT to 82 MMT due to heightened consumption rates.
January 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77 3/4, reflecting a decrease of 12 3/4 cents, but are currently up 4 cents.
Nearby Cash positioned at $9.27, down 12 cents.
March 25 Soybeans ended at $9.85 1/4, down 14 cents, and are currently up 3 1/4 cents.
July 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents, but have seen a small increase of 3 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are intended solely for informational purposes. For further information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
