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Soybeans Bounce Off Lows Following Bearish USDA Report

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Resilient Soybeans: Analysis of Market Response Post USDA Report

Soybeans Show Resilience After Bearish USDA Report

Despite initial setbacks in the wake of the USDA release, soybeans are staging a remarkable recovery, demonstrating the resilience characteristic of the agricultural commodities market. At midday, soybeans are slightly down by 1 ¾ to 3 cents across the front months, but a rebound from the post-report lows is underway. This market dance of highs and lows reflects the intricate interplay between data points and market sentiment.

Soymeal futures, on the other hand, have taken a positive turn, showing an upward trend with gains of $2.60 to $3.50 per ton. However, Soy Oil is experiencing a downward spiral, down by 116 points on Thursday, painting a divergent picture of the soy complex.

Insights from USDA’s WASDE Release

The weekly Export Sales report sheds light on old crop soybean sales, totaling 305,257 MT, reaching a 3-week high and aligning with trade estimates. Of notable mention is Mexico, emerging as a significant buyer with a purchase of 172,600 MT. In the realm of meal, sales stand at 187,933 MT for the current marketing year, with an additional 53,429 MT for the next. The bean oil segment makes its mark with sales of 4,308 MT.

The USDA’s WASDE release unveiled a 15 mbu increase in the US carryout for the current marketing year to 340 mbu. This adjustment was propelled by a decreased export forecast. On the global front, changes were minimal, with the carryout tightening marginally by 0.05 MMT to 114.22 MMT. Notably, Brazil and Argentina maintained their production figures (155 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively), contrary to speculations of a lower yield in Brazil. Meanwhile, Paraguay witnessed an augmentation in both production and exports.

Market Snapshot: Soybean Prices

As the market responds to these developments, soybean prices showcase the dynamic nature of commodity trading. May 24 Soybeans stand at $11.63, a decrease of 1 3/4 cents, while Nearby Cash registers at $11.09 3/4, down by 1 1/2 cents. The sentiment extends to Jul 24 Soybeans, priced at $11.76 (a decrease of 2 cents), and Nov 24 Soybeans at $11.67 1/4, down by 2 cents. New Crop Cash lies at $11.04 1/8, down 1 3/8 cents.

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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