Elon Musk’s vision for space exploration is gaining significant momentum.

In October, SpaceX achieved a significant milestone with its Starship program. During Flight Test 5, the company successfully captured the returning Super Heavy booster mid-air using mechanical “chopsticks” on its launch tower. Although the subsequent Flight Test 6 faced a tower capture abort, it still showcased impressive water landings for both the Super Heavy and the Starship’s second stage, including a successful engine reignition while in orbit, which was another key goal of the test.

Following these advancements, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration approved SpaceX to increase its Starship launch capacity from five to 25 launches per year. However, this isn’t enough for SpaceX’s Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell, who has her sights set on reaching 100 launches.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX Aims for 25 Launches in 2025

SpaceX is prepared to capitalize on the FAA’s approval and intends to maximize its launch capacity in 2025. Kathy Lueders, the general manager of SpaceX’s “Starbase” in Texas, expects to reach this limit. Yet at a recent investment conference, Shotwell shared her ambitious vision for the future, projecting that SpaceX could achieve 400 Starship launches over the next four years.

A recent report from Payload Space summarized various ambitious predictions from SpaceX executives, outlining clear implications for investors in the space industry.

A Farewell to Falcon 9

One startling implication from Starship’s development is the potential obsolescence of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Falcon 9 conducted 91 launches in 2023, recently surpassing this record with 116 launches already completed in 2024. While many of these missions were for launching Starlink satellites, the Falcon 9 also performed 36 commercial missions for paying customers, making it the world’s most frequently used commercial rocket.

Part of Falcon 9’s success lies in its competitive pricing, costing less than $70 million per launch—making it more affordable than options from Arianespace or United Launch Alliance. However, the Starship is expected to be even more cost-efficient. Estimates place Starship’s construction cost at about $90 million, which is 28.5% higher than Falcon 9 but offers 400% more payload capacity. Musk anticipates that as production scales, costs could fall to as low as $10 million per flight.

If SpaceX achieves this target, then Falcon 9 may be unable to compete, leading to its retirement in favor of Starship for both cargo and crew missions, within the next six to eight years, as predicted by Shotwell.

Implications for Competitors in Spaceflight

The potential retirement of Falcon 9 poses significant challenges for companies competing with SpaceX. Currently, the Falcon 9 boasts the lowest price for placing payloads in orbit. If Starship’s costs drop low enough to undercut Falcon 9, chances are that no other rockets could compete, allowing Starship to dominate the space launch market.

With Shotwell’s forecast of 400 Starship launches over the next four years—an average of 100 per year—SpaceX’s lift capacity could increase fivefold. This presents a dilemma for the industry: will there be sufficient demand for this expanded launch capability? If demand doesn’t match the supply, basic economic principles suggest that launch prices will decline across the board.

As Starship may drive prices lower, other companies might struggle to operate profitably in this competitive landscape.

SpaceX’s Promising Future

While the outlook seems challenging for competitors, the news is positive for SpaceX. The company is currently raising funds at an impressive valuation of $255 billion. Shotwell believes that SpaceX’s diverse portfolio, including Starlink and Starship, could elevate its valuation to $2.5 trillion in the coming years.

This ambitious trajectory signals an exciting chapter in SpaceX’s journey.

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