Boise Cascade Faces Significant Stock Challenges in 2025

Boise Cascade BCC is one of the leading producers of engineered wood products and plywood in North America. However, BCC has experienced a steep decline of over 20% in 2025, due to macroeconomic challenges, industry-specific issues, and operational difficulties.

Q1 Earnings Miss Expectations for Boise Cascade

On May 5, Boise Cascade missed its Q1 2025 earnings estimate by 22%. Additionally, the company provided disappointing guidance, continuing an ongoing trend of downward revisions in earnings per share (EPS).

Understanding the Current Situation for BCC

Boise Cascade, a significant player in engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood, is also heavily involved in the wholesale distribution of building products across the U.S. The company enjoyed substantial growth from 2012 to 2022, including an impressive 18% increase in 2020 and 45% in 2021, largely due to the housing boom triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite 6% additional sales growth in 2022, the company has faced challenges in a slowing housing market since then.

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In 2023, Boise Cascade’s sales decreased by 19%, followed by a further 2% decline in 2024, with earnings dropping approximately 40% and 20% in those respective years. Most recently, the company’s Q1 earnings fell 59% year over year to $1.06 per share, again missing expectations by 22%. CEO Nate Jorgensen attributed this decline to “constrained demand, difficult weather, and planned downtime at our Oakdale veneer and plywood mill.”

Following these results, the consensus earnings estimate for Boise Cascade in 2025 has decreased by 18%. The estimate for 2026 has also dropped by 13%, earning the company a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). It is projected that earnings will fall another 31% year-over-year in 2025, accompanied by a 2% decrease in sales.

Future Outlook for Boise Cascade Stock

Despite its current challenges, Boise Cascade stands to benefit from long-term demographic trends. The ongoing undersupply of single-family homes will likely sustain housing demand. The company also maintains a solid balance sheet and pays dividends, making it a potential watchlist candidate for investors.

However, the immediate future appears uncertain due to weak housing market demand and broader economic uncertainties.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.