The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) rose 0.14% today, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) increased by 0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) gained 0.03%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up 0.20% and Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up 0.14%. Speculation about Iran’s potential response to recent U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites has contributed to slight gains in stock index futures, alongside a stronger-than-expected S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI, which remained unchanged at 52.0—above the expectation of 51.0.
As tensions escalate following the U.S. attacks, Iran has threatened retaliation and conducted attacks on Israeli targets. Iran’s army declared that the U.S. will face “severe consequences,” furthering concerns about the impact on oil supply, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for about 20% of global crude shipments. If Iran were to block this key route, oil prices could surge to between $120 and $150 per barrel according to Kpler Ltd.
Today’s market will focus on potential Iranian retaliation, new tariff announcements, and economic data releases, including existing home sales expectations of a 1.3% decrease to 3.95 million. Fed Chair Powell is set to testify on monetary policy this week, with upcoming reports on consumer confidence and GDP also anticipated.
