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On October 31, 2023, major U.S. stock indexes experienced gains, with the S&P 500 Index up 0.46%, the Dow Jones up 0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.94%. Notably, Amazon.com shares surged more than 11% following its strong Q3 earnings report, which revealed net sales of $180.17 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $177.82 billion.
The U.S. economy faced mixed signals as the MNI Chicago PMI rose to 43.8 in October, above the expected 42.3. However, comments from Fed officials indicated reluctance to cut interest rates further amid a balanced labor market and persistent inflation. Currently, markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments saw U.S. Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agree to extend a tariff truce and reduce export controls, aiming to stabilize U.S.-China trade relations. Notably, during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, an estimated 640,000 federal workers are furloughed, potentially affecting jobless claims and the unemployment rate, projected to rise to 4.7%.
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