Strategies for Navigating Alcoa’s Upcoming Q4 Earnings Report

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Alcoa Corporation (AA) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 22, 2025, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts earnings of 95 cents per share on revenues of $3.24 billion, reflecting an 8.7% decline in earnings and a 7% drop in revenues compared to the previous year. Over the last 60 days, fourth-quarter earnings estimates have risen by 18.8%.

Alcoa’s Aluminum segment is anticipated to generate $2.45 billion in sales, indicating a 29% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in North America and Europe. In contrast, its Alumina segment is expected to decline by 46%, with projected sales of $1.32 billion due to lower shipments linked to refinery curtailments. The company’s earnings surprise history shows it has outperformed estimates in the last four quarters by an average of 39.3%.

The company’s current earnings ESP stands at +0.53%, with a Most Accurate Estimate of 96 cents per share, suggesting a potential earnings beat. Alcoa’s shares rose 54.2% over the past three months, outperforming industry growth and reflecting positive market conditions bolstered by recent strategic partnerships and acquisitions.

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