Autodesk Earnings Report: Analyzing Historical Stock Patterns

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), known for its design and digital creation tools, will report its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. An analysis of the last five years indicates a balanced trend: the stock exhibited a positive one-day return post-earnings announcements 50% of the time (median return of 1.7% and peak of 10.3%), while the other 50% saw a negative one-day return (median return of -6.3% and largest drop of -15.5%). This suggests equal chances for increases or decreases on the day following the earnings report.

Trading Strategies in Light of Earnings Uncertainty

For event-driven traders, these mixed signals create opportunities despite the uncertainty. The market response will largely depend on how the reported figures stack up against consensus estimates. Two key strategies can be employed:

• Pre-earnings Positioning: Take a look at the historical probabilities for positive and negative reactions. Position accordingly before the earnings announcement, as the odds are relatively even.
• Post-earnings Positioning: Evaluate the link between the immediate market reaction to earnings and the medium-term stock performance, adjusting trades after the announcement.

Current Earnings Projections and Company Performance

Presently, consensus forecasts anticipate Autodesk to report sales of $1.61 billion and earnings per share of $2.15 for the upcoming quarter. This marks an increase from the same period last year, when the company recorded sales of $1.42 billion and earnings per share of $1.87.

From a fundamental standpoint, Autodesk holds a market capitalization of $64 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated revenues of $6.1 billion, with an operating profit of $1.4 billion and a net income of $1.1 billion.

Statistical Overview of Autodesk’s Earnings Reactions

Reviewing one-day (1D) post-earnings returns reveals the following observations:

• In the last five years, there have been 20 earnings reports with 10 positive and 10 negative returns, indicating a balanced outcome.
• The positive return percentage rises to 58% when analyzing data from the last three years alone.
• The median for the positive returns stands at 1.7%, while negative returns average -6.3%.

Additional figures for post-earnings 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns can be found in the appended table.

Understanding the Correlation of Historical Returns

Another approach is to examine the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns. Identifying pairs with the strongest correlation allows traders to position themselves effectively based on prior outcomes. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation, a trader could opt for a long position if the 1D post-earnings return is positive.

Impact of Peer Earnings on Autodesk Stock

The stock performance of peer companies can affect Autodesk’s post-earnings reaction. Market sentiment may shift even before the earnings announcement. Historical data illustrates how Autodesk’s stock reacted in comparison to peers reporting earnings shortly before Autodesk.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.