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On October 5, 2023, sugar prices experienced slight gains, with October NY world sugar #11 rising by +0.08 (+0.51%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 increasing by +0.60 (+0.13%). This recovery followed early losses, driven by a weaker dollar that encouraged some mild short covering in sugar futures.
Despite the daily rise, concerns remain about sugar prices due to a projected global sugar surplus and increased production in key markets. Brazil’s sugar output in the first half of August rose by +16% year-on-year to 3,615 MT, with mills prioritizing sugar over ethanol. Additionally, the USDA forecasts a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, alongside a projected rise in consumption to 177.921 MMT.
Looking ahead, higher sugar production is also anticipated in India, which may reach 35.3 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a +19% increase year-on-year, further contributing to bearish sentiments in global sugar markets.
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