On Tuesday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed at $15.05, up +0.06 (+0.40%), while London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed at $469.70, up +2.10 (+0.45%). Sugar prices increased due to a more than 2% rise in WTI crude oil to a five-week high, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, potentially affecting global sugar supplies.
Last Thursday, sugar prices fell to three-week lows amid reports of improved monsoon rains in India, although cumulative rainfall remains 23% below normal as of July 20. Concerns persist regarding the impact of the El Niño weather pattern, with projections for reduced rainfall in major sugar-producing regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts this El Niño could be one of the strongest in over 75 years, raising alarms about future sugar production.
In the latest Commitment of Traders data, funds increased their long positions in ICE London white sugar to a record 58,847 net-long positions. Brazil’s Center-South sugar production for the 2026/27 season has been reported at 6.838 million metric tons, down 2.0% year-on-year due to a shift towards ethanol production, with only 41.42% of sugarcane now being used for sugar.
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