**Sugar Market Update – July 2023**
On Thursday, July NY world sugar #11 closed at a 7-week low, down 0.13 points (0.45%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 increased by 2.40 points (0.54%). The selling pressure was attributed to a strong dollar, which reached a two-month high, impacting global sugar prices.
Czarnikow has revised its 2026/27 global sugar surplus estimate from 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) to a deficit of 10,000 metric tons, largely due to Brazil’s sugar mills opting for ethanol production amid rising crude oil prices. Despite an increase in Brazil’s sugar production—up 55.3% year-on-year to 2.475 MMT according to Unica—concerns linger over potential supply disruptions linked to dry weather conditions from the El Niño phenomenon purported to affect major sugar-producing regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Additionally, Thailand’s sugar exports surged by 29% year-on-year to 1.6 MMT during January-April 2023, further pressuring global sugar prices. The USDA projects Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 to decline by 0.5% to 43.952 MMT, compounded by a shift towards ethanol production.
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