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March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) increased by 5 points (+0.34%) to $1.48 per pound on March 10, 2023, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) rose by 2.50 points (+0.60%) to $414 per metric ton. This rise follows announcements from India’s food ministry considering an increase in ethanol prices, incentivizing sugar mills to divert cane towards ethanol production, thereby potentially reducing sugar supplies.
In further developments, India is expected to export 1.5 million metric tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from previous estimates of 2 million metric tons. Concurrently, the International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 million metric ton surplus in 2025-26, driven by higher production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported a rise in sugar production estimates for Brazil to 45 million metric tons for the same period.
India’s sugar production for the 2025/26 season is anticipated at 31 million metric tons, an increase of 18.8% year-over-year. Thailand’s production is projected to grow by 5% to 10.5 million metric tons. Overall, the USDA estimates global sugar production will rise 4.7% to a record 189.318 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year.
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