On October 2, 2023, sugar prices rose with NY world sugar #11 increasing by 0.27% to reach a three-and-a-half-week high, while London ICE white sugar #5 gained 0.69%, marking a four-week high. The surge in prices is attributed to forecasts of tighter future sugar supplies, with Covrig Analytics projecting a global sugar deficit of 300,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2026/27 season, a shift from an earlier surplus estimate of 100,000 MT.
Concerns regarding India’s sugar crop are amplifying these price increases. The Indian Meteorological Department warned of below-normal monsoon rainfall during August and September, possibly marking the weakest monsoon in 11 years. Additionally, El Niño weather patterns could disrupt sugar production in major producing countries, including Brazil and Thailand, further impacting global supply.
Recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates an expected decline in global sugar production for 2026/27, projected at 184.854 million MT—a 6.5% drop from the previous year’s record. Human sugar consumption is anticipated to rise by 0.4% year-on-year to reach 179.991 million MT, raising concerns about supply versus demand dynamics in the coming seasons.
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