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On October 17, 2023, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down -0.09 (-0.62%), reaching a new 4.75-year low, while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) fell -5.10 (-1.21%), marking a 4.25-year low. This decline in sugar prices is attributed to a global sugar surplus and increased output in Brazil, where sugar production rose by +10.8% year-on-year in September, totaling 3.137 million tons.
Additionally, India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, anticipates a 19% increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 million tons, following a decrease to a five-year low of 26.2 million tons in 2024/25. Thailand’s sugar production is also projected to rise by +5% in 2025/26 to 10.5 million tons, contributing to bearish market conditions.
Global sugar production is expected to increase by +4.7% year-on-year to a record 189.318 million tons in 2025/26, with a projected consumption increase of +1.4% to 177.921 million tons. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global deficit of -231,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, following -4.88 million tons in 2024/25.
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