On Wednesday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.13 cents (-0.90%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) fell 4.80 cents (-1.15%). This decline followed a two-month high reached earlier in the week, influenced by long liquidation pressures and a stronger U.S. dollar. Notably, sugar prices dropped despite a 5% rally in crude oil prices, which typically supports sugar by promoting ethanol production from cane.
Analysts expect a growing global sugar surplus, projecting a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. India’s sugar production is anticipated to increase by 12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT for the 2025/26 season, alongside approval for an additional 500,000 MT of sugar exports. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT in the 2025/26 crop year.
