As of October, the NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) has decreased by 1.22%, closing down 0.18 points, while London’s ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) is down 0.33%, a drop of 1.50 points. This decline is attributed to falling crude oil prices, which are down more than 6%, potentially reducing ethanol production and encouraging sugar mills to shift focus back to sugar production.
Concerns are rising over the potential impacts of an El Niño weather pattern, which could disrupt sugar harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the top three sugar-producing regions. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has indicated that this El Niño could be one of the most intense in over 75 years, affecting global sugar supply. In contrast, India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall improved to 16% below normal as of July 27, an improvement from 42% below normal as of June 30, initially signaling higher sugar outputs.
Global sugar production forecasts show a potential deficit for the 2026/27 season, with the International Sugar Organization predicting a drop in production by 1.15% year-over-year to 180 million metric tons, influenced by anticipated adverse weather from El Niño. In Brazil, sugar production is expected to decrease by 3% to 42.5 million metric tons, while India’s production may rise by 12% to 33.6 million metric tons, driven by favorable weather conditions.
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