**Sugar Prices Decline Amid Global Supply Expectations**
On May 1, 2023, sugar prices saw a slight decrease with May NY world sugar #11 falling to $0.01 (-0.07%) and May London ICE white sugar #5 decreasing by $0.40 (-0.10%). This drop comes after NY sugar hit a five-week low and London sugar reached a one-month low last Friday due to expectations of abundant global supplies. India’s Food Secretary clarified that there are no plans to ban sugar exports this year, which alleviated concerns over potential supply constraints linked to ethanol production.
Further pressuring sugar prices is an increase in production forecasts. India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories reported a projected sugar output of 27.12 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025-26 crop year, a 9% increase year-on-year. Similarly, Brazil’s Unica indicated a cumulative sugar output of 40.25 MMT, up 0.7% from the previous year. Additionally, analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT for the 2026/27 crop year, following an estimated 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.
