As of October, sugar prices are declining, with October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) down 3.02% to $19.30 per pound, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) down 2.84% to $525.90 per metric ton. This follows a drop in WTI crude oil prices impacting ethanol production, leading to a potential increase in sugar supplies as mills may shift from ethanol to sugar production.
Key data indicates a projected global sugar deficit of 200,000 MT for the 2026/27 season, driven by adverse weather conditions in major producing countries like India and Thailand. Thailand’s sugar production is expected to fall 17% year-on-year to 10 MMT, while India’s monsoon rainfall has been reported 15% below normal.
Brazil, the largest sugar producer, has also reported a significant drop in production, with June output down 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT. Concerns over an impending El Niño are mounting, raising fears of further disruptions in sugar production across the world’s primary sugar-producing regions.
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