On Friday, July NY world sugar #11 closed down by 0.13 cents (0.91%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 dropped 2.30 cents (0.51%). The declines were attributed to a more than 3% drop in WTI crude oil prices, which may lead sugar mills to increase sugar production due to lower ethanol prices.
The Brazilian real reached a 1.75-month low against the dollar, promoting sugar exports from Brazil, where sugar production for 2026/27 is forecasted at 43.952 million metric tons, reflecting a 0.5% decline. Conversely, Thailand’s sugar exports rose 29% year-over-year to 1.6 million metric tons in early 2026.
Concerns over potential supply disruptions from El Niño weather patterns could impact global sugar production in major regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand. The USDA and International Sugar Organization have varying forecasts for future sugar production, projecting potential deficits in the 2026/27 season due to El Niño effects.
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