As of today, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) has declined by 1.33% to $16.29, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) has dropped by 1.85% to $482.40. This decrease is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, which has prompted long liquidation in sugar futures.
Recent reports indicate a potential tightening in global sugar supplies, as Pakistan plans to import 500,000 metric tons (MT) and the Philippines aims for 424,000 MT. However, the USDA has projected a global sugar surplus of 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, marking the largest surplus in eight years, driven by higher production forecasts in major producing countries. India’s sugar production is expected to climb by 19% to 35 MMT due to favorable conditions.
In Brazil, sugar production has been adversely affected, with a reported decrease of 14.6% year-on-year to 9.404 MMT. The International Sugar Organization has revised its forecast, predicting a global sugar deficit of 5.47 MMT for 2024/25, highlighting future market tightness following last season’s surplus.
