On May 1, 2025, sugar prices reached two-week lows, with New York world sugar #11 (SBK26) down by 1.74% to $15.22 and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) down by 1.58% to $440.80. This decline is attributed to weakening crude oil prices, which are reducing ethanol costs and potentially encouraging sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol.
Data from Unica indicated that Brazil’s cumulative sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 0.7% year-over-year to 40.25 million metric tons, driven by enhanced cane crushing rates. Additionally, India’s sugar output for the same period is expected to increase by 12% year-over-year to 29.3 million metric tons, supporting forecasts for a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons in the 2026-27 crop year.
In contrast, a rally in the Brazilian real has made sugar exports less appealing, further influencing market dynamics. Recent projections estimate a global sugar production increase of 3% year-over-year to 181.3 million metric tons for 2025-26, despite high production levels in other countries such as India and Thailand.
