As of today, July NY world sugar #11 decreased by 1.95% to $13.54, and August London ICE white sugar #5 fell by 1.35% to $445.40. This decline follows recent strength in the U.S. dollar, which reached a 13-month high, and a drop in WTI crude oil prices to a 3.5-month low, impacting sugar supply dynamics.
Concerns over India’s sugar crop due to 38% below normal monsoon rainfall as of June 17 have also influenced prices. The emergence of an El Niño weather pattern could further disrupt production in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the three largest sugar producers. Recent estimates by Czarnikow forecast a global sugar deficit for the 2026/27 season, projecting a shift in Brazilian production toward ethanol rather than sugar.
Further, the USDA has predicted Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 at 42.5 million metric tons, a 3% decrease year-on-year, while India’s output may reach 32 million metric tons, slightly down from earlier projections. Overall, the ISO anticipates a global sugar surplus of 2.2 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, although a subsequent decline to a deficit of 262,000 metric tons is forecasted for 2026/27 due to adverse weather impacts.
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