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March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) is down -0.08 (-0.56%), reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low, while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -0.70 (-0.17%). This decline is primarily driven by an increase in global sugar production forecasts, particularly from India and Brazil. The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up 18.8% year-on-year, while Brazil’s Conab agency also increased its forecast to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT.
Data from Datagro indicates Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 could rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT. The USDA further projects global 2025/26 sugar production to increase by 4.7% to a record 189.318 MMT. Additionally, India is expected to divest only 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production, creating an oversupply situation and boosting potential exports, increasing India’s 2025/26 production estimate to 35.3 MMT.
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