On Wednesday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.35 cents (-2.40%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) dropped 6.40 cents (-1.49%), marking a three-week low amid a week-long decline in sugar prices. This drop was influenced by a 16% plunge in crude oil prices, which prioritized sugar production over ethanol, leading to anticipated increases in global sugar supplies.
Sugar prices have been pressured by India’s Food Secretary confirming there are no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing concerns of a diversion to ethanol production. Additionally, India’s estimated sugar output for 2025-26 has increased by 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million metric tons (MMT), alongside Brazil’s production, which is up 0.7% year-on-year to 40.25 MMT, as reported by Unica. This increased production raises concerns of a persistent global sugar surplus, highlighted by projections from the International Sugar Organization forecasting a surplus of 1.22 MMT for the 2025-26 crop year.
