Sugar prices continued their decline on Thursday, with July NY world sugar #11 closing down 1.07% at nearly a 4-year low and August London ICE white sugar #5 down 1.03% at a 4.5-month low. The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, leading to a surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
In India, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories anticipates an increase in sugar production by 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT due to larger cane acreage and favorable monsoon conditions, while Brazil’s production is expected to rise 2.3% to 44.7 MMT. However, reduced production in Brazil, down by 22.7% in the first half of May, coupled with a forecasted decline in India’s 2024/25 production to a five-year low of 26.2 MMT, adds complexity to the market.
Overall, the International Sugar Organization has raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a nine-year high of -5.47 MMT, as adverse weather conditions impacted sugar crops in Brazil, where fires caused by drought led to significant crop losses.
