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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) has decreased by 0.09 points (-0.62%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down by 5.10 points (-1.21%). This decline marks a significant drop in sugar prices, with NY sugar reaching a 4.75-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year nearest-futures low.
The pressure on sugar prices is primarily attributed to increased sugar production in Brazil, with the Center-South sugar output rising by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September. Additionally, aggregate sugar output for 2025-26 in Brazil is up by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons. Additionally, projections indicate a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 as stated by BMI Group.
In India, the Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, 8% above normal, which is expected to bolster sugar production to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, a 19% increase year-on-year. Thailand is also projected to see increased sugar output, forecasting a 5% rise to 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
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