On October 3, 2023, sugar prices rose, with October NY world sugar #11 closing up 0.01 (+0.06%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 closing up 1.40 (+0.29%). The increase followed a report from Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, which reduced its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1%, lowering it from 45.9 million metric tons (MMT) to 44.5 MMT.
China’s July sugar imports surged 76% year-over-year to 740,000 MT, while Pakistan issued a tender for 200,000 MT of refined sugar, indicating stronger global demand. India, however, is expected to increase sugar exports with a forecasted production rise of 19% to 35 MMT for the 2025/26 season, which could negatively impact prices.
Historical data from June 30, 2023, indicated a projected 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the highest in eight years, further contributing to market pressures. The USDA also anticipates a 4.7% year-over-year increase in global sugar production for 2025/26, reaching a record 189.318 MMT.
