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As of today, October NY world sugar #11 prices rose by +0.08 (+0.50%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 increased by +2.10 (+0.45%). This uptick follows a decline to 5-week lows earlier this week due to stronger sugar production in Brazil, where the first half of July output claimed a 15% year-over-year increase to 3.4 million metric tons (MMT).
India is expected to enhance sugar exports, with potential licenses for local mills to export 2 MMT in the upcoming season beginning October, propelled by above-normal monsoon rains totaling 500.8 mm as of August 4. Projections indicate that India’s sugar production for 2025/26 could rise by 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT, impacting global prices negatively.
Despite surging imports from China—up 1,435% to 420,000 MT in June—and the shift to cane sugar by Coca-Cola, which could increase US consumption by 4.4%, overall global sugar dynamics remain challenging. The International Sugar Organization noted a revised sugar deficit forecast of -5.47 MMT for 2024/25.
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