As of March, NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) increased by +0.12 (+79%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) rose by +3.30 (+0.76%). This uptick follows a forecast by consulting firm Safras & Mercado, indicating that Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT), down from 43.5 MMT projected for 2025/26. The firm also anticipates a reduction in Brazil’s exports, forecasting a -11% year-on-year drop to 30 MMT.
Meanwhile, India’s sugar production outlook is more optimistic, with the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) projecting a production increase of +18.8% year-on-year to 31 MMT for the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts global sugar production will reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, reflecting a +4.6% year-on-year growth, while global sugar consumption is expected to rise by +1.4% to 177.921 MMT.
On a bearish side, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, primarily driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting a previous deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25.
