Sugar prices increased on Monday, July 3, with July NY world sugar #11 closing up 1.50% and August London ICE white sugar #5 rising 1.23%. Citigroup forecasts Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season to be 39.5 million metric tons (MMT), significantly below Conab’s estimate of 43.95 MMT, as mills shift from sugar to ethanol production due to high gasoline prices.
Concerns about global supply constraints are heightened by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade. Additionally, recent reports indicate shifts in export policies and production forecasts, with India’s sugar surplus expected at 2.5 MMT for 2026/27, marking its first surplus in two years, while Covrig Analytics reduced its global sugar surplus forecast from 1.4 MMT to 800,000 metric tons.
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